As I turn in for the night, it’s after midnight and already, technically, election day. Nate Silver writes that “the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama
is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race
for the White House.” And he notes that, according to his models, “McCain’s chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.”
Back in June, I wrote, “My wife would say I’m jinxing it, but if I had to put down a bet, I’d bet on Obama in a near-landslide come November.“
I’m hoping that, twenty-four hours from now, I turn out to be wrong, that it’s an actual landslide for Obama. That seems unlikely at the moment, but Nate points out that there are “many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.“
Hope. I go to bed with hope. And later on today, as is our custom, one
of our sons will accompany me to the voting both and help me pull the
levers.
